Gracie Ann Fischer

PhD Student in Disease Ecology


Curriculum vitae



School of Natural Resources and the Environment

University of Arizona

Environment and Natural Resources 2 Building
1064 East Lowell Street
Tucson, AZ 85719



Modeling Avian Hotspots of Potential West Nile Virus Outbreaks: A case study in Coconino County, Arizona


West Nile Virus (WNV) is an arbovirus that infects birds and is spread by Culex mosquitoes.  West Nile Virus has been detected in over 150 bird species, with morbidity and mortality of avian hosts varying significantly between clades. Changing climate, land use and biodiversity loss will influence the distribution of both avian hosts and mosquitoes, impacting the spread of vector-borne diseases. To identify potential hotspots of WNV outbreaks, we used MaxEnt species niche distribution modeling and ArcGIS Pro to model the habitat distribution of three high-competency amplifying hosts (American Robin [T. migratorius], House Sparrow [P. domesticus], House Finch [H. mexicanus]), two low-competency hosts (Common Raven [C. corax], American Crow [C. brachyrhynchos]), and one supersuppressor host (Northern Cardinal [C. cardinalis]) of WNV  in Coconino County, Arizona.  We included other variables influencing habitat use and distribution, such as temperature, rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index, and elevation. We found that the ranges of all high-competency bird species shifted seasonally, with contracted distributions in the spring.  Understanding how the distributions of hosts shift under different climatic scenarios will allow both wildlife conservation and public health professionals to identify potential transmission ‘hotspots’ and perform proactive measures to mitigate future outbreaks.  
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